Five more days...unless of course, something happens due to Super-Storm Sandy and voting gets delayed somewhere in New Jersey or New York City or New England....or Romney wins the vote but loses the Electoral College and sues...you never know. The only "poll" I really pay attention to is one and even though it's now almost 80% favorable to Obama, that still means, because the fellow who calculates it used to do odds in Vegas, that, like any table in Vegas, the 20% can still come in. And I'm very superstitious when it comes to being overly hopeful when gambling or making predictions.
But here's where Obama and Romney stand with regard to what was in the PolitiFact Truth-o-Meter count for them as of October 30, 2012:
Obama is about 22.8% more "truthful" based on PolitiFact rulings than Romney. PolitiFact is 3.6 times more likely to elevate a False ruling for Romney to Pants on Fire than they are for Obama.
For the trend line, I'm going to add a period-to-period average (in the dotted line) along with the accumulated average (shown in the solid line). This is so you can see where the Truth Index+ made any significant movements:
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| Click to enlarge: Romney's 2011 28.6 Truth Index was from his presidential announcement (see below) |
And what did Romney say that got his Truth Index down so low in early 2011? Well, a few of the things he said then he continued to repeat, and stated during the October, 2012, debates. He also re-stated one of PolitiFact's Lies of the Year: that "Obamacare" was a government take-over. He also made the comment about Obama's worldwide "Apology Tour" and that the United States was inches from being a free economy.
But it looks like--for the last 4 months, at least--that even here Romney has narrowed the gap on the Truth Index+. Since June Obama rates only 12% more "truthier" than Romney with the PolitiFact rulings. Of course, there are some that say this is all for naught because PolitiFact has a left-leaning bias. But so what...because there are also some that say that's malarkey, and back it up.
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| Three Pants on Fires in a row didn't help Romney's Truth Index in 2011. |
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