In a Politi-Score/Truth Index review of Mitt Romney, it was graphically shown how his Truth Index has deteriorated since entering the 2012 presidential race, from 2011 forward. At the end of 2010, it was more than 50% higher than Obama’s (a positive 19 versus Obama’s 12). At that time Mitt had 45 rulings total, which put him in the “exclusive club” of those with the number of Truth-o-Meter rulings which might mean something statistically.
By the end of March, 2012, Mitt’s Truth Index had dropped to a negative 12.7, while Obama’s barely moved, from just over 12 to under. But there is another way to look at this: what if Romney had the same number of rulings as Obama at the end of 2010, but with the same Truth Index of a positive 19 he had at the time? How would it look now?
Mitt talks about the Obama economy, Obama-care, Obama recession, Obama-blah blah blah. So let’s give Mitt an Obama-adjusted Truth Index. Based on an 18.9 Truth Index with 272 rulings (Obama’s number)as opposed to 45, Mitt’s Truth Index would today be a positive 8.02. It would still have gone slowly down, but obviously much more smoothly. Point wise he would be very close to Obama at 11.54. Here's the graph:
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| Click to enlarge: Obama and Mitt might draw close to even in next 6 months to the election (on quantity-adjusted). |
So there is a flattening effect in the averages caused by the large number of rulings, even with the index heavily weighted to the False side. When Mitt hit 100 rulings, each additional ruling affected the average less than 1 percent, in Obama’s case, it’s now less than a third of one percent.
In a way, this shows the poor sensitivity of the Index individually—one more reason it should not be considered a reliable measure of “truthiness.” It should also be noted that Romney fell below Obama’s Truth Index in January…this may in part be due to Romney’s veering way right as the primaries started and the campaign ramped up. I will have to review this later to see if Romney’s Truth Index improves.
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