PolitiFact Florida gets kind of close , but doesn’t close the deal, in justifying its overly-generous Mostly True ruling on a statement by Governor Rick Scott who thinks that fewer people collecting unemployment is a good thing:
Scott said Florida’s economy is getting better in a lot of ways.
"We’re doing well. We’re at a three-year low on our unemployment in this state... We generated around 100,000 net jobs so far, if you look at the federal numbers," he said in the April 18, 2012, interview with Orlando-based station WDBO. "But if you look at the state numbers, about 230,000 people that were on unemployment when I took office are not on unemployment now.
The “boomer years” started in 1946, which means that the first boomers turned 62 in 2008, when they qualified for receiving reduced Social Security. Now they are turning 66, which is the age at which they receive the full amount (and of course, also have become eligible for Medicare). According to CBS News, a “ full 70 percent of recipients sign up for Social Security between age 62 and the normal full retirement age, which is between 65 and 67, depending on the year you were born.”
So, assuming 70% of boomers signed up, what we have is a lot of people dropping out of the workforce permanently, or those who have done so not of their own preference (there was no work and they ran out of unemployment benefits). I believe this phenomenon is what is making the unemployment rate drop even though so few jobs are being created, not enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. Sorry, Obama, but he (and Scott) know that's true.
In Florida this translates to about 79,000 retirement-age people (by my own calculation, based on population) who could have dropped out of the workforce in the last year, assuming half those eligible to retire at 62 continued working.
PolitiFact Florida adds “about 15,000 Floridians age 16 and up dropped out of the labor pool last month.” This certainly begs the question: how many dropped out the month before that, or for the year? If an annual number was provided, it might include the 79,000 estimate above. I can't seem to find such month-to-month numbers on line, so it makes this 230,000 all the more elusively difficult to verify.
Coupled with the denial of “131,115 applicants for failing to comply with the new law” it seems to me Rick Scott has nothing to brag about, and in view of the many caveats to his 230,000 number, it’s more of a “partially accurate but leaves out important details.” The reason 230,000 people are not on unemployment is because the majority gave up, were rejected by Florida’s new unemployment system, or those who were eligible started collecting social security. It had little to do with any “turn-around.” More like a Half True.
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