Grading PolitiFact *Liberal*-Style: Rick Perry's Budget Bliss

PolitiFact (PF) Texas awarded an inconclusive “Half True” for a fairly straightforward statement by Rick Perry  about his financial prowess as Texas Governor: “..we cut a record $15 billion from our budget.”

But you can cut your budget all you want, heck, you can cut it to zero, the problem is, can you meet the budget? That’s the difference, as they say, between walkin’ the walk and talkin’ the talk. And Rick Perry, it appears, was just talkin’ the talk.

In January, Paul Krugman wrote in his New York Times column:

The only thing that let Gov. Rick Perry get away, temporarily, with claims of a surplus was the fact that Texas enacts budgets only once every two years, and the last budget was put in place before the depth of the economic downturn was clear. Now the next budget must be passed — and Texas may have a $25 billion hole to fill. Now what?

In September, local Texas publications appeared to confirm that Krugman’s prediction was coming true:

A budget shortfall as high as $27 billion is projected as lawmakers work through the 2011 legislative session, according to estimates from economists and the comptroller's office. There is unity on the amount of its budget shortfall, however. Republicans who argue spending does not need to be maintained or grow from 2010-11 levels argue the shortfall could be around $12 billion to $15 billion. Texas writes budgets biennially, or in two-year terms, so the shortfall affects the 2012-13 state budget.

So even if the Republicans view the shortfall conservatively, the cuts almost match the shortfall.

PF Texas points out that some of the original budget shortfalls were made up by stimulus money, and that the true “cuts” was around $3 Billion. But, as noted, the shortfall seems to be suspicously matching the cut—while the maximum projected is almost double that…which means there was never a cut to begin with.

Then there were budget tricks such as delaying payments so they “appear” not to be part of the current budget, such as “$2.3 billion in payments to school districts.” Which only means, the Texas Budget has to increase by that amount the next time around, unless the payments are delayed again. Eventually, it catches up with you.

So PF Texas judged Perry’s statement quite charitably. He was off by 80% or more with “smoke and mirrors” budget cuts. There’s a lot of documentation out there that PF missed that indicates Perry’s budget claims were incorrect, and getting more incorrect all the time. “False” or “Mostly False” would be a more legitimate ruling.

Postscript:  According to FactCheck.Org, Texas has a "balanced budget amendment,"  and begins with saying that it's true that Texas is "spending more money than [it] takes in."  So keep cutting, Rick.

Postscript to Postscript:  I do have to admit, however, I was wrong on one thing with regard to Republican presidential potential: old rootin' tootin' Rick may now be Texas Toast.