Grading PolitiFact *Liberal*-Style: Pelosi and the Polls

Nancy Pelosi ‘s Truth Index hasn’t been the best this year; in fact, this year she’s even exceeded Michele Bachmann in “UN-truthiness” while Michele has been bringing her score up through the presidential debates. While they are a contradiction in ideologies, their predilection for propaganda seems to go hand in hand.

This particular PolitiFact (PF) ruling on Pelosi sort of stands on that line between Half True and Mostly True. PolitiFact decided to act less “charitably” or to be on the safe side of those who may accuse it of liberal bias, went with Half True. But did she deserve it? She was discussing the public’s approval of congress with Jon Stewart on his Daily Show, when she said “The last time I was here in April of 2009 ... the Democrats were in control and the congressional (approval) rating was 40 percent. Do you remember that?"

Preceding that statement, she provided the contrast: today congressional approval is around a paltry 11% (she used 9%, but at that low a number, it doesn’t make much difference). The underlying argument for Pelosi is that congressional job approval was much higher at that time than it is today, which is undeniably true. Here is a graphic representation from writer Lou Jacobson’s source, Real Clear Politics:

Pelosi's right that the period she specifies (highlighted) has been the most favorable for congress in almost 3 years.

Around the time Pelosi made the claim, as highlighted, the “Congressional Job Approval” average had increased, indeed, almost doubled since January, 2009, and stabilized for several months at just below 40 percent….from March 16 to April 5 of 2009, a period of three weeks, it was within 10 percent, averaging 36 to 37 percent.

PolitiFact also adds this paragraph for the two months surrounding April:

If you look at the months of March, April and May 2009, you’ll find two polls with 41 percent support. Still, all the other polls during that period were lower, and the average for the 13 polls is 35 percent -- still short of the 40 percent mark that Pelosi cited.

Thirty-four percent (15% off) is the “cutoff” for Mostly True. With 13 polls averaging 35 percent, we’re there, well within the cutoff. In April there is one poll which is 5 percent off, but the average is 20% off. The RCP average poll shows that for a three week period going into April, she is within 10 percent of the 40 percent. In May and even in June, there were several periods where the polls were within 10% of her claim.

So we have a strong underlying argument and polling bringing her very close for a Mostly True ruling. Even the Pelosi graphic says “It was 40-ish”—and that’s not enough? Yes, she's short, but not by much.  Instead she gets an equivocal Half True, most likely to satisfy the grumbling conservatives.