Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Politi-Score: On the New PolitiFact App (Part 1)

Recently PolitiFact posted on Facebook about a new Android application available for only $1.99, which crunches its rulings and gives a “report card” by individual as well as what it calls a “Truth Index” which according to PolitiFact is “… like the Dow Jones Industrial Average of truth.”

As I don’t have a device which operates on Android and don’t intend to go out and purchase one to try to figure out the machinations of the PolitiFact app, I will try to figure it out solely from the graphics PolitiFact provided. The first one, the color-coded report cards by individual, was fairly easy. I reproduce it here using bar chart creation in Excel, compared to PolitiFact’s graphic.

Here's PolitiFact's Report Card in its new "App"

Here's how I did it along with the Politi-Score in parentheses next to the person's name.


Sunday, June 19, 2011

Lil White Lies: Grasping for Straw (Men)

Lawyer’s Question at Deposition: “All your responses must be oral, okay? What school did you go to?”
Response: “Oral.”


So many things we say are subject to interpretation, and in a way, my conservative counterpart’s entire blog relies the most heavily on that: how PolitiFact (PF), interprets a statement it selects for fact-checking, compared to how he believes it should be interpreted. He even goes so far as to claim the statement they checked was never even made, as he does in this PolitiFact ruling on a statement Laura Ingraham made on the Bill O’Reilly Show, where she frequently appears and usually hosts on Friday evenings. Bryan White’s conclusion as to the misinterpretation:
PolitiFact assumed Ingraham was talking about the program's popularity in Massachusetts. But that doesn't fit the context. Romney's concern is RomneyCare's popularity with Republican primary voters. If Romney doesn't win the Republican nomination then he has no realistic shot at the presidency, period.

Not only did PolitiFact fail to figure that out from the context, PolitiFact has failed to respond to the call to revisit the issue. 

It isn't a close[d] issue. Does the need to protect the brand from admissions of error so easily supersede the desire to tell the truth? Or is ideological bias the better explanation for the reluctance to correct or clarify?
(Incidentally, PolitiFact does make corrections to its rulings despite Bryan’s claims of “the need to protect the brand from admissions of error.”)

Here’s Bryan White’s letter to Bill Adair and Lou Jacobson, imploring them to consider his interpretation as the only correct one, and theirs as a “failure”:
Dear Misters Adair and Jacobson,

The story on Laura Ingraham published on May 16 contains a substantial hole and a likely error.

The hole comes from the story's failure to provide context or background material sufficient to judge the context of Ingraham's statement. In other words, there is absolutely nothing in the quotation of Ingraham that would indicate she was talking about RomneyCare's popularity in Massachusetts. As such the presentation of the story conflicts with PolitiFact's aim of providing readers the tools to determine whether to agree with the "Truth-O-Meter" rating or not…
I say “failure” because Bryan uses this word repeatedly. It communicates negligence, it is intended to humiliate. So, what exactly did Ingraham say? Here it is straight from Bryan White’s own blog:

Friday, June 17, 2011

PolitiFact Detractors are even on YouTube!

This latest PolitiFact detractor, some fellow named Peter Schiff, who sounds like a libertarian,  has a radio show somewhere in the Virginia area. I “wikied” him and, wouldn’t you know, he’s the “CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, LLC, a gold and silver dealer based in New York City.”

In this "audio" YouTube video, he interviews Jacob Geiger, a writer for PolitiFact Virginia, who ruled that Tea Party senatorial candidate Jamie Radtke was "Barely True" in a statement she made earlier this year (see below audio-video):



"We’re spending so much money that we can’t even borrow it fast enough -- the Federal Reserve has to print more money just to keep up!"

Radtke continued: "The international financial markets know what it means when a nation monetizes its debt, even if Washington doesn’t. Commodity, food and energy prices have been climbing over the past 12 months: Corn prices have risen 69 percent; wheat prices have risen 44 percent; sugar prices have risen 15 percent; and gasoline is back at three dollars a gallon... and rising."
Geiger verified the price increases as actually 75% for corn, 52% for wheat and 12% for sugar; he came to his ruling of Barely True because “Radtke goes off track when she attributes these higher prices to a Federal Reserve that helps the United States "monetize its debt."

While Peter Schiff didn’t have the bombast of say, Rush Limbaugh, he was clearly off on a lot of things as he blamed everything on the printing of money and alluded to gold and silver as the favored monetary measure. But he was incorrect to say that economic growth doesn’t create inflation or that gold prices are an indicator of inflation. Economic growth in theory should not cause inflation, but in reality it almost always does (or, in reverse, there can be “stagflation”, recessionary inflation). Gold prices may serve as an inflation or deflation hedge, but it is not always a precursor to inflation. Gold reached a high in early 2008 along with oil, and then it declined. During that time, and for the rest of 2008 and 2009, core inflation stayed very low.

But Radtke wasn’t talking about gold and silver. She was talking about agricultural commodities, and Radtke’s take on it was correct (and Geiger shouldn’t owe her an apology, as Schiff continually demanded). Corn, wheat and sugar are not a finite supply like gold and silver, so I’m guessing futures speculation, due to the droughts and floods, had driven them higher for the time being. And by the way, the price of soybeans has declined this year—shouldn’t they be going up as well?

I don’t think Jacob Geiger was used to the verbal interview and his short silences and "uh, uhs" were disconcerting. He shouldn’t have let Schiff distract him over the prices of gold and silver, clearly what Schiff was trying to push. In other words, Schiff was trying to turn PolitiFact into a marketing tool for gold investments...perhaps, as well, the reason for the YouTube video.
 

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Sidebar: A Theory on Why Michele Bachmann is the "Lyin' King"

Note:  Another article at the blog Motor City Liberal arrives at a similar but rhetorically excellent conclusion on Bachmann.  Great reading!

A recent article by Michele Goldberg of the Daily Beast gives some excellent insight into why Michele Bachmann probably believes that anything she says (and there's a lot of flat-out crazy remarks as well) is the “truth” despite PolitiFact’s rulings which show her to be the least truthful politician of those rated by them (and why she has no reason to answer their calls to her office when they are investigating her statements):
…A key moment in her political evolution, as for many of her generation, was the film series "How Should We Then Live" by the theologian Francis Schaeffer, who is widely credited for mobilizing evangelicals against abortion, an issue most had previously ignored. A Presbyterian minister, Schaeffer argued that our entire apprehension of reality depends on our worldview, and that only those with the right one can understand the true nature of things. Christianity, he argued, is "a whole system of truth, and this system is the only system that will stand up to all the questions that are presented to us as we face the reality of existence." Theories or assertions from outside this system—evolution, for example—can be dismissed as the product of mistaken premises.

This accounts for some of the bafflement that occasionally greets Bachmann's statements. "Michele Bachmann says certain things that sound crazy to the general public," says author Frank Schaeffer, Francis Schaeffer's son and former collaborator. "But to anybody raised in the environment of the evangelical right wing, what she says makes perfect sense."
But what does taking up such a closed world view in spite of the evidence really mean? In some respects, it makes Bachmann pathological, as she has essentially shut off all critical thinking skills.
Critical thinking doesn’t require a PhD, or even a college education. It simply means getting in to the habit of asking “What’s the evidence?” And if the evidence can’t be distinguished from wishful thinking or making stuff up, then you say “That’s wishful thinking” and “You’re making stuff up.”

If people started taking critical thinking seriously, belief in astrology, foot reflexology, homeopathy, crystal power, dowsing, faith healing, demonic possession, the Shroud of Turin, ghost hunting and young-earth Creationism would disappear overnight, freeing up an enormous amount of wasted time, effort and resources. And think of what more critical thinking would do for our politics. It boggles the mind.
Which is why I used to believe in astrology, etc., until critical thinking made me realize it was “stuff made up”, and why I became an agnostic after a lot of critical thinking since being “saved.”

Bachmann’s evidence is confined to the world view into which, like a baptism, she has been fully immersed . There’s likely no hope she would change. I suspect she is so pathologically complete in her Christian “reality” that if space aliens suddenly revealed themselves to our world with far advanced scientific knowledge and answered many mysteries by providing clear-cut evidence of big-bang creation, evolution and global warming (or, heaven forbid, that some humans are actually  born gay), she would still insist there was only her God, Supply Side Jesus, and the aliens needed to be saved...and their evidence didn't matter.

Based on Goldberg’s article, however, one can see a trend which may be useful in overcoming such candidates by revealing their inherent lack of depth: we’ve seen it in Sarah Palin, Christine O’Donnell, and Sharon Angle as well. That is when confronted with critical questions or facts that challenge their reality (which can be as simple as “what do you read?” in the case of Palin), they go into a cowardly avoidance mode.

Michele, Michele, pudding and pie
Kissed the Christians and made them cry
But when those with reason came out to play
Michele, Michele ran away.